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As part of my Master’s thesis, I studied future imaginaries (see here). ‘Imaginary’ has been an established sociological term for quite some time and has been particularly influenced by Charles Taylor. He has worked on ‘social imaginaries’. In general they can be described as follows:
When social ideas become so self-evident that they are no longer questioned, they have become imaginaries. They fade into the background and guide – largely invisibly – decisions and behaviour in everyday life.
Imaginaries according to Taylor
What is interesting about imaginaries is that they are less concerned with the rational choices and intellectual theories of elites than with the ideas of people in everyday life:
“I speak of imaginary because I’m talking about the way ordinary people “imagine” their social surroundings, and this is often not expressed in theoretical terms; it is carried in images, stories, and legends. But it is also the case that theory is usually the possession of a small minority, whereas what is interesting in the social imaginary is that it is shared by large groups of people, if not the whole society.”
Charles Taylor, Modern Social Imaginaries, 2002, p. 106
Future Imaginaries defined
Future images, visions and scenarios are ideas of the future that are conceived and propagated by individuals or groups. When these images of the future are so present in society that they are no longer questioned and instead guide action without reflection, they have become future imaginaries.
Taylor’s quote could be adapted for Future Imaginaries as follows:
‘I speak of future imaginary because I’m talking about the way ordinary people “imagine” their future, and this is often not expressed in theoretical terms; it is carried in visions, anticipations, and hopes. But it is also the case that theory is usually the possession of a small minority, whereas what is interesting in the future imaginary is that it is shared by large groups of people, if not the whole society.‘
AI as an example of a future imaginary
Artificial intelligence (AI) is a typical example of a current future imaginary in Germany. Because it is widely expected to play an enormously important role in the future, everyone from the federal government to small and medium-sized enterprises feels compelled to develop a strategy for dealing with AI. At the same time, a large proportion of the population is concerned about how AI will affect their lives. But virtually no one is questioning whether AI is relevant to the future at all.
To test whether something is a future imaginary, you can ask yourself how high the resistance would be in the context under consideration if you were to act in contradiction to the future imaginary. The higher the resistance, the more likely it is that it is a future imaginary.
Update: I wrote about Future Imaginaries in detail in my master’s thesis, which is available in English and German.