Anyone who has ever listened to a keynote by a typical “trend guru” or “futurist” will probably remember the frenzy of buzzwords, futuristic videos and seemingly inevitable forecasts. This article starts right there and shows why such appearances often cause short-term amazement rather than building long-term capacity for action. Instead of mere trend fireworks, it focuses on the question of how real future competence is created – and why organizations don’t just have to be spectators of the future, but can actively shape it.
1. The Future Dilemma
Describes the mechanisms behind overwhelming “trend shows” and analyzes why companies often feel helpless afterwards.
2. The Side Effects of Cognitive Overload
Shows how passive “wait-and-see” or hectic reactions tend to block long-term innovation rather than promote it.
3. An Alternative Approach
Explains the methods and principles with which the future can actually be understood and shaped – from historical embedding to critical source selection and clear derivation of action.
4. The Right Mix
Offers suggestions on how to combine inspiring elements with sound analysis in a meaningful way – depending on the occasion and target audience.
5. Conclusion
Provides food for thought on how organizations can gradually move out of the consumer mindset and become creators.
Instead of cookie-cutter visions, the article encourages a reflective examination of new technologies and trends. This creates more confidence in dealing with the future and thus a much more robust basis for sustainable decisions.
1. The Future Dilemma: The Mechanisms of Overload
“The best way to predict the future is to issue a press release.”
This sentence by education technology critic Audrey Watters crossed my mind when I recently experienced a typical future presentation: a trend scout projected a cascade of videos and statistics at breakneck speed. They all proclaimed revolutions and innovations. What I saw there was essentially a curated collection of press releases and promotional videos – without critical classification or contextualization.
The faces of the audience showed what I had often observed: cognitive overload and the fear of being at the mercy of an unstoppable development. The Q&A session confirmed this with comments such as: “I’m completely overwhelmed”, “How are we supposed to keep up?”
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