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As the year draws to a close, we are treated to a familiar ritual: the publication of countless trend reports designed to explain the future of the coming year. With mechanical regularity, the buzzwords of the moment are analysed – from artificial intelligence to new work to the metaverse. But amidst this deluge of predictions, a fundamental question arises: what distinguishes a genuine trend report from an elaborate marketing tool?
The basics: what true trend analysis needs to achieve
A trend report formulates a hypothesis about a future change (‘a combination of factors such as virtual reality, token-based technologies and others could lead to a new paradigm of digital infrastructure, currently referred to as the metaverse’). This hypothesis is based on patterns derived from current signals (‘numerous start-ups in this area are receiving funding, virtual worlds are being used far beyond gaming, etc.’). And it is presented with different possible development paths (‘It will replace the Internet as we know it. It will mainly be a rebranding of virtual reality, following the path of Second Life. It is a forced advance by Silicon Valley that will lead to an even more pronounced cyberpunk reality’).
The Reality of Trend Reports: Marketing instead of Insight
Most so-called ‘trend reports’ fail to meet this basic requirement. They present their trend hypotheses as predictions (‘This is the future!’). They selectively choose examples to support their predictions without questioning them. And they deliberately avoid alternative paths of development in order to make the trend appear inevitable.
These trend reports are often nothing more than a collection of press releases on case studies that provide no practical insight. They serve only to position the issuing agency or consultancy as the expert of the future. This begs the question: how useful is a guide that simply regurgitates the buzzwords of tech companies?
The Mechanism of Trend Reports: Images of the Future as Instruments of Power
The problem of superficial trend reports goes beyond methodological weaknesses. In his research on ‘fictional expectations‘, economic sociologist Jens Beckert shows that images of the future play a central performative role in the economy: they coordinate decisions under uncertainty and can thus become self-fulfilling prophecies.
What at first glance appears to be a neutral analytical report is in fact part of a “politics of expectations” – a struggle for the prerogative of interpreting the future. Let’s take recent examples: the wave of AI trend reports seems to be less about orientation and more about enforcing certain visions of the future. Or let’s look at Zuckerberg’s incessant storytelling about the metaverse: the media-savvy keynotes and billion-dollar investments are intended not only to advance technological development, but above all to demonstrate the ‘inevitability’ of this specific vision of the future.
This dynamic illustrates the central challenge: the more actors adopt a particular vision of the future and align their decisions with it, the greater their influence on development in that direction. This is where critical futures research comes in: it deconstructs these seemingly inevitable visions of the future, thereby opening up space for alternative development paths.
The Way Out: Critical Trend Research as an Alternative
A good trend report systematically analyses a trend on several levels:
- It identifies counter-trends and resistances that place the dominant narrative in a larger context.
- It analyses the underlying, longer-term drivers: What economic interests, technological developments and social dynamics are really driving the trend?
- It contextualises the historical development: What past trends and narratives is the current development following? What can we learn from them?
- It reveals power structures: Who benefits from the ‘inevitability’ of the trend? Which voices are being ignored? What is the report saying nothing about very loudly?
This kind of critical analysis takes more work than simply regurgitating press releases and tech keynotes. But that is precisely what makes it valuable: it enables organisations to make their own strategic choices – rather than simply parroting the tech giants’ pre-determined narratives of the future. After all, if you adopt the dominant visions of the future without reflection, you will inevitably become a mere extra in someone else’s story.
I would be happy to help you with this work!